By Peter Dansu Across parts of West Africa, military coups have become a troubling trend, especially in countries within the Sahel where d...
By Peter Dansu
Across parts of West Africa, military coups have become a troubling trend, especially in countries within the Sahel where democratic institutions seem to be losing credibility. Frustrated citizens often welcome these takeovers, seeing them as a fresh start in places where leadership has failed to inspire hope.
Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, had its own scare in September 2025 when reports emerged of an attempted plot involving senior military officers. Sixteen top-ranking officers were arrested and are still being held over suspicions of planning to overthrow President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
At the same time, neighbouring Benin Republic is battling a similar challenge after soldiers loyal to Colonel Tigri reportedly tried to seize power in Cotonou. The country shares cultural and ethnic ties with Nigeria, adding to regional concerns.
Despite these developments, experts insist that toppling a Nigerian president through a military coup is nearly impossible under the current political and security structure. They identify four key reasons:
1. A Multi-Layered Security Shield Around Aso Rock
The Presidential Villa is surrounded by no fewer than six military bases. Within this same zone sit the headquarters of the Nigeria Police Force, the Department of State Services, and the Office of the National Security Adviser.
For any coup plot to succeed, all these security layers, controlled directly by the Commander-in-Chief, would need to be compromised. Analysts agree this is nearly unthinkable.
2. Tribal and Ethnic Allegiances Within the Military
Nigeria’s diversity is reflected strongly in the armed forces. Experts say ethnic loyalty often influences decisions in moments of crisis. A military officer is unlikely to participate in a plot to topple a president who shares the same ethnic background as him, especially when senior positions in the security architecture often reflect national diversity.
This ethnic dynamic makes it difficult for officers to unite around a single objective that goes against the interests of their communities.
3. The Protective Design and Geography of Aso Rock
The layout of the Presidential Villa is regarded as one of Nigeria’s strongest natural defenses. The complex sits right beside the massive Aso Rock, which blocks access from the rear and sides. Any hostile approach can only come from the front—an area heavily protected with advanced security technology and personnel.
The distance from the main entrance of the Villa to the president’s residence is roughly six kilometres, giving guards enough time to detect and neutralize any threat long before it gets close. This setup makes Aso Rock one of the most fortified presidential residences in Africa.
4. Logistics Challenges and Centralized Communication Monitoring
Most coups in Nigeria’s past took place when the capital was still in Lagos, a smaller and more compact environment. Abuja, on the other hand, is much larger and harder for mutineers to control quickly.
In addition, Nigeria’s highly centralized telecommunications network gives intelligence agencies the ability to monitor most forms of communication, making it extremely difficult for plotters to coordinate without detection.
Source: Reliant News
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