By Peter Dansu In the run-up to the July 2025 local government elections in Lagos, a quiet but decisive political shift has taken place—on...
By Peter Dansu
A report by the Guardian Newspaper suggests that at the heart of this political recalibration is a growing rift between President Bola Tinubu and the Lagos governor, a once-trusted ally whose standing within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) appears to be diminishing rapidly. While neither man has publicly acknowledged any falling-out, recent events suggest that the fissures in their relationship are no longer possible to hide—particularly with the complete shut-out of Sanwo-Olu’s camp in the council primaries.
Traditionally, Sanwo-Olu—like his predecessors—would have played a central role in influencing candidate selections at the grassroots level. This year, however, the governor’s fingerprints were absent. None of the 57 chairmanship candidates who emerged were linked to his political structure. Similarly, the GAC, long regarded as the apex decision-making body in Lagos APC politics, was stripped of its once-formidable influence. Sources say directives from the presidency explicitly barred governors and GAC members from nominating or endorsing candidates, including their children or protégés.
Insiders reveal that President Tinubu's relationship with Sanwo-Olu began to sour after the governor’s alleged involvement in a botched attempt to unseat the Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Mudashiru Obasa. At least 32 of the 40 lawmakers reportedly backed the move after meeting with the governor, who was accused of encouraging and even bankrolling the effort. But once word reached Tinubu, he intervened swiftly and decisively—ordering Obasa’s reinstatement and sending an unmistakable message: disloyalty would not be tolerated.
That single episode, party insiders say, dealt a fatal blow to Sanwo-Olu’s standing within the inner sanctum of the Lagos APC. Since then, he has been conspicuously absent from key events, including President Tinubu’s recent visit to Lagos and the APC National Policy and Performance Review Summit in Abuja. His absence at the latter—a platform where Tinubu was formally endorsed for a second term—was particularly telling. Whispers in Abuja suggest the governor was deliberately excluded from the guest list.
Even more revealing was what happened during the President’s airport arrival in Lagos. Eyewitnesses say Tinubu walked past Sanwo-Olu without acknowledgment, shaking hands instead with Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat. The governor was reportedly excluded from the protocol list, and only intense last-minute lobbying got him added.
That same weekend, Sanwo-Olu was missing from several high-profile events, including the 50th anniversary of ECOWAS hosted in Victoria Island—an event held in his own state. Aides offered a vague excuse of a scheduling conflict, but many in the political class weren’t buying it.
For political watchers, Sanwo-Olu’s current predicament fits into a well-worn pattern in Tinubu’s Lagos political playbook. First, a loyal protégé is installed in power. Then, once that ally begins to assert independence or makes a perceived misstep, they are pushed to the margins—or out entirely.
Babatunde Fashola, for instance, nearly lost his second term bid until party elders intervened. His successor, Akinwunmi Ambode, wasn’t so lucky; he was denied a second term outright after falling out with the Tinubu camp. Now, Sanwo-Olu appears to be next in line for political exile.
But unlike his predecessors, Sanwo-Olu’s sidelining is playing out far more publicly—and with greater implications. Analysts believe the zero-tolerance approach to his involvement in the council primaries reflects a deeper, more strategic consolidation of power by Tinubu as he positions himself for the 2027 general elections.
The directive to exclude GAC members and the governor from influencing council candidates is seen by many as a move to dismantle entrenched power structures in Lagos and reassert control from the centre. Some APC insiders describe it as a “clean sweep” aimed at neutralising any opposition within Tinubu’s home base before 2027.
Emerging power blocs, reportedly loyal to Abuja, screened out several aspirants seen as Sanwo-Olu loyalists. Others withdrew under pressure. The message was clear: political capital in Lagos now flows directly from the presidency, not from Alausa or Bourdillon.
The ripple effects are already evident. With Sanwo-Olu cut off from the grassroots pipeline of the APC—where councillors and chairmen often serve as the political foot soldiers for higher ambitions—his political base is crumbling beneath him. Many believe he may be serving out his final term without the machinery that first propelled him into office in 2019.
Compounding Sanwo-Olu’s woes is the fallout from the investigation into Aisha Achimugu, a prominent oil trader with alleged links to both the governor and opposition elements. Though the EFCC denied any political undertone, the saga was weaponised by his rivals within the Lagos APC to further distance him from Tinubu.
Some within the party accused Sanwo-Olu of harbouring divided loyalties, especially given reports of his prior engagements with opposition figures. Although unproven, these whispers have cast a long shadow, reinforcing perceptions that he is no longer a trusted figure within the Tinubu fold.
For many Lagosians, these internal APC dramas are more than palace intrigues. They have real consequences. The breakdown in relationships between successive governors and the Tinubu establishment has often resulted in stalled projects, abandoned policies, and policy inconsistencies—borne not out of necessity, but out of politics.
From Fashola to Ambode, and now to Sanwo-Olu, each political falling-out has left its mark on governance. As new governors seek to assert independence or win favour from the powers that be, continuity suffers and Lagosians are left navigating an underperforming metropolis riddled with half-finished infrastructure and piecemeal reforms.
As the 2025 local government elections approach, one thing is clear: the political landscape in Lagos is being redrawn. The sidelining of Sanwo-Olu and GAC loyalists from the grassroots contest marks a significant shift in how power is distributed—and reclaimed—in Nigeria’s commercial capital.
Whether this reconfiguration strengthens Tinubu’s grip ahead of 2027 or further fractures the Lagos APC remains to be seen. But for now, the Sanwo-Olu era appears to be quietly winding down—not with a bang, but with a calculated, methodical freeze-out.
Report excerpted from Guardian News
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