By Dansu Peter As Nigeria edges toward the 2027 general elections, fresh political tremors are already rippling through the nation’s power...
By Dansu Peter
Several top political figures in the North are reportedly frustrated with what they perceive as President Tinubu’s dismissive posture toward their region since assuming office in 2023. Despite the North’s decisive contribution to his electoral victory, many northern leaders feel shortchanged in terms of appointments, policy focus, and political inclusion, report by Nigerian Tribune details
Sources familiar with ongoing conversations say some northern political stakeholders are now quietly aligning around a radical but strategic option: a Goodluck Jonathan comeback in 2027 — not out of nostalgia, but as a tactical blowback against Tinubu’s growing dominance and perceived sidelining of the North.
Tinubu’s Southern Lockdown Strategy
President Tinubu, aware of the delicate North-South power rotation tradition, has been tightening his grip on the South. From orchestrating high-profile defections into the APC to strengthening alliances in the South-South and making overtures to the South-East, Tinubu is building a formidable southern bloc to secure a second term.
His 2027 game plan echoes former President Jonathan’s successful 2011 strategy: sweep the South, then pick strategic votes from the North’s Christian belt. For now, the plan seems to be on track, but it’s drawing sharp attention and discomfort in the North, where elite dissatisfaction is quietly turning into political plotting.
Northern Frustration Reaches Boiling Point
Many in the North are fuming over what they view as Tinubu’s transactional politics, tilted heavily in favor of his South-West base. The feeling of marginalization — compounded by economic hardship, rising insecurity, and a lack of visible federal presence in northern communities — is driving top politicians to seek a powerful response.
That response, insiders say, may come in the form of Jonathan — a Southern Christian widely respected in the North for his calm demeanor, non-confrontational politics, and, most importantly, his decision to peacefully hand over power in 2015.
Why Jonathan? The North’s Strategic Bet
For the northern political elite, Jonathan represents a rare political asset: a Southerner with national appeal who poses no long-term threat to northern power interests. With only one constitutionally permitted term left, a Jonathan presidency in 2027 would pave the way for the North’s quick return to power by 2031.
That’s not all. Jonathan’s image as an elder statesman, peacemaker, and democratic icon has grown since leaving office. His international goodwill and relative detachment from current political squabbles make him a unifying figure — a stark contrast to the polarizing climate under Tinubu.
Backing Jonathan, according to some insiders, is a “win-win”: It punishes Tinubu for what is perceived as his regional arrogance, while preserving the North’s long-term shot at the presidency without violating the informal zoning agreement that still governs Nigeria’s political balance.
Behind-the-Scenes Movers and Shakers
Names like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir el-Rufai, Babachir Lawal, and Hakeem Baba-Ahmed are being floated as key architects of this emerging strategy. These northern powerbrokers, though ideologically diverse, share a common concern: preventing Tinubu from monopolizing the political space through incumbency and southern consolidation.
Although many in the opposition are flirting with the idea of Peter Obi, the energetic former Anambra governor and 2023 Labour Party candidate, northern strategists see Obi as a longer-term challenge. His two-term potential, strong youth backing, and ideological rigidity pose a threat to northern ambitions, as he could lock out the North until 2035.
In contrast, Jonathan offers a less disruptive path — one term, broad appeal, and no political ambition beyond 2027.
Will Jonathan Run?
The major hurdle now is Jonathan himself. So far, he has kept a dignified distance from partisan politics, choosing instead to focus on international peace work. Convincing him to re-enter the fray would require a compelling political offer, likely including cross-party support and a unified platform.
There’s also the platform question: Would he return through the PDP? A third-party coalition? Or a new national movement?
Tinubu Remains a Titan
Of course, any challenge to President Tinubu won’t be easy. As a master political strategist with deep war-chests and control of the ruling party’s machinery, Tinubu still holds the upper hand. His incumbency advantage and grip on federal institutions give him tools many challengers lack.
Yet, history shows that political upsets in Nigeria are rarely impossible — especially when driven by broad discontent and shrewd alliances.
2027: A Battle of Strategy, Not Sentiment
In the end, 2027 may not be about ideology or performance. It could boil down to calculation. If the North cannot field a viable candidate without triggering southern backlash, then backing a short-term southern ally like Jonathan may be the smartest move.
For now, the conversations are still quiet, the deals unsealed, and the actors cautious. But behind closed doors, a northern-led political twist is taking shape — and at its center may be the unlikely return of a man who once walked away from power, now being courted to walk back in.
Culled from Nigerian Tribune
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